Will North Korea's New Missile Push US to Expand Missile Defenses
2020-10-21
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1North Korea showed off a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a big military parade earlier this month.
2Security experts say the missile appears designed to overpower U.S. missile defenses.
3They believe it may push the United States to add costly new anti-missile defenses to guard against the new weapon.
4The huge ICBM is the largest ever shown by North Korea.
5Commentators say it is likely to be the "new strategic weapon" promised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the beginning of the year.
6A strategic weapon is one that can strike from a great distance.
7The missile was presented at a parade marking the 75th anniversary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party.
8Little is known about the weapon, which is being called the Hwasong-16.
9But experts say North Korea is likely trying to show it can put several nuclear warheads on a single missile.
10That would make intercepting such a weapon more difficult and costly for U.S. missile defense systems.
11"If you have multiple warheads coming out of that single missile, you now have to have multiple interceptors for each incoming warhead," said Melissa Hanham.
12She studies North Korea's weapons program and is deputy director of the Austria-based Open Nuclear Network.
13The new ICBM, Hanham said, appears large enough to be deployed with many warheads.
14It is so large that it may also be able to hold decoys, which are meant to confuse anti-missile systems.
15Hanham noted that such missiles are not only costly, but they increase the cost of defense systems designed to stop them.
16She added that it is less costly and easier to build a new missile than to create a missile defense system.
17Andkit Panda is a nuclear policy specialist at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
18He says the United States will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to keep up with changes in North Korea's growing force.
19The United Nations expanded sanctions against North Korea in 2017 after the country carried out a series of nuclear and ICBM tests.
20The U.S. and North Korea were involved in nuclear negotiations in 2018 and 2019.
21But North Korea eventually walked away, angry at the U.S. refusal to ease the sanctions and provide security guarantees.
22U.S. officials have dismissed concerns that North Korea's missile program could produce a weapon able of avoid ground-based U.S. missile defenses.
23In January, General John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he had "100% confidence" in their ability.
24However, independent defense experts wonder about U.S. missile defenses, especially if North Korea deploys ICBMs with multiple warheads.
25Markus Garlauskas and Bruce Perry are two former members of the U.S. intelligence community.
26They wrote that: "It is hard to see how Americans could be confident that...U.S. missile-defense interceptors would be sufficient to stop an attack...by North Korean ICBMs with multiple warheads each."
27The two noted that building more interceptors might be too costly.
28North Korea's new ICBM, however, does have strategic issues.
29The missile is carried by a transporter launch vehicle that has at least 22 wheels.
30The launcher may be too large to travel on many North Korean roads, which are often in poor condition.
31The large size of the missile also means it likely must travel with a team of fuel trucks and machinery to help lift it, Hanham said.
32She added that preparing the missile for launch would take hours.
33That would permit observers to identify the missiles setup.
34In addition to that, the missile remains untested.
35But some experts say that could change.
36In January, the North Korean leader said that he no longer felt he had to continue his own ban on nuclear and long-distance missile tests.
37U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has warned Kim against any provocations before the U.S. elections on November 3. Kim may be unwilling to risk such a test.
38Bruce Klingner is a North Korea specialist at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation.
39Klinger told VOA, "What I would expect is to see that ICBM tested next year."
40He added: "North Korea tends to...do something very provocative in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration."
41Hanham said that North Korea may watch to see what happens in the U.S. elections.
42Although the North may choose to do nothing, they "have a powerful way of signaling their dissatisfaction now by testing this missile," she said.
43I'm Mario Ritter, Jr.
1North Korea showed off a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a big military parade earlier this month. 2Security experts say the missile appears designed to overpower U.S. missile defenses. They believe it may push the United States to add costly new anti-missile defenses to guard against the new weapon. 3The huge ICBM is the largest ever shown by North Korea. Commentators say it is likely to be the "new strategic weapon" promised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the beginning of the year. A strategic weapon is one that can strike from a great distance. 4The missile was presented at a parade marking the 75th anniversary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party. 5Little is known about the weapon, which is being called the Hwasong-16. But experts say North Korea is likely trying to show it can put several nuclear warheads on a single missile. That would make intercepting such a weapon more difficult and costly for U.S. missile defense systems. 6Costly defense system 7"If you have multiple warheads coming out of that single missile, you now have to have multiple interceptors for each incoming warhead," said Melissa Hanham. She studies North Korea's weapons program and is deputy director of the Austria-based Open Nuclear Network. 8The new ICBM, Hanham said, appears large enough to be deployed with many warheads. It is so large that it may also be able to hold decoys, which are meant to confuse anti-missile systems. 9Hanham noted that such missiles are not only costly, but they increase the cost of defense systems designed to stop them. She added that it is less costly and easier to build a new missile than to create a missile defense system. 10Andkit Panda is a nuclear policy specialist at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He says the United States will have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to keep up with changes in North Korea's growing force. 11The United Nations expanded sanctions against North Korea in 2017 after the country carried out a series of nuclear and ICBM tests. The U.S. and North Korea were involved in nuclear negotiations in 2018 and 2019. But North Korea eventually walked away, angry at the U.S. refusal to ease the sanctions and provide security guarantees. 12U.S. officials have dismissed concerns that North Korea's missile program could produce a weapon able of avoid ground-based U.S. missile defenses. 13In January, General John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he had "100% confidence" in their ability. 14However, independent defense experts wonder about U.S. missile defenses, especially if North Korea deploys ICBMs with multiple warheads. 15Markus Garlauskas and Bruce Perry are two former members of the U.S. intelligence community. They wrote that: "It is hard to see how Americans could be confident that...U.S. missile-defense interceptors would be sufficient to stop an attack...by North Korean ICBMs with multiple warheads each." 16The two noted that building more interceptors might be too costly. 17Is a test in the future likely? 18North Korea's new ICBM, however, does have strategic issues. The missile is carried by a transporter launch vehicle that has at least 22 wheels. The launcher may be too large to travel on many North Korean roads, which are often in poor condition. 19The large size of the missile also means it likely must travel with a team of fuel trucks and machinery to help lift it, Hanham said. She added that preparing the missile for launch would take hours. That would permit observers to identify the missiles setup. In addition to that, the missile remains untested. 20But some experts say that could change. In January, the North Korean leader said that he no longer felt he had to continue his own ban on nuclear and long-distance missile tests. 21U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has warned Kim against any provocations before the U.S. elections on November 3. Kim may be unwilling to risk such a test. 22Bruce Klingner is a North Korea specialist at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation. 23Klinger told VOA, "What I would expect is to see that ICBM tested next year." He added: "North Korea tends to...do something very provocative in the first year of a new U.S. or South Korean administration." 24Hanham said that North Korea may watch to see what happens in the U.S. elections. Although the North may choose to do nothing, they "have a powerful way of signaling their dissatisfaction now by testing this missile," she said. 25I'm Mario Ritter, Jr. 26William Gallo reported this story for VOA News. Mario Ritter Jr. adapted it for VOA Learning English. George Grow was the editor. 27________________________________________________________________ 28Words in This Story 29intercept -v. to stop and take someone or something that is going from one place to another place before that person or thing reaches their goal 30multiple -adj. many, more than one 31decoy -n. something that attracts attention so that something else can go unnoticed 32confuse -v. to make someone unable to understand what is going on 33sanctions -n. actions taken countries against another country to force it to obey international law 34confidence -n. a feeling of belief that something can done 35provocations -n. actions that are taken to cause someone or some group to become upset or angry 36We want to hear from you. Write to us in the Comments section, and visit our Facebook page.